Unbearably HoT

While I was attempting to write up an article about druid tanking weapons and which I preferred and why (this will eventually get thrown up down the road), I ended up chilling out on the DruidWiki looking at game mechanics. Translation: MATH OH SHIT. Thinking that I might use these particular numbers at some point down the road, I casually scrolled down to the Bear Tanking section and pondered over the bit about Mangle. According to DruidWiki:

Mangle (Bear): Damage done * 1.3
Example: Mangle crits for 1000 damage. 1000 * 1.3 * 1.3 = 1690 threat (1885 for 3/3 Feral Instinct).

The above formula assumes the 30% inherent threat caused by Dire Bear Form. The problem, however, was that when I tried to find out how they arrived at the 1885 number for 3/3 Feral Instinct (which assumes an increase of 15% to inherent Dire Bear Threat for a total base threat gained of 45%), I couldn’t get the numbers to work out.

Mangle crits for 1000 damage. 1000 * 1.45 * 1.45 = 2102.5

Lol, wut? Now, I’m certainly not any sort of math genius and I occasionally have problems with basic arithmetic, so I asked the hottest paladin I know to take a look at it. Almost right away, he told me that the way they arrived at 1885 was to use this formula:

Mangle crits for 1000 damage. 1000 * 1.3 * 1.45 = 1885

Additionally, he explained to me, using their base formula doesn’t take a critical hit and multiply the TPS twice; the formula effectively calculates 30% of 30% rather than 2 * 30% (if that’s how critical hits actually scale with TPS in Dire Bear Form). An amended formula that calculates the TPS gained from a critical hit with Mangle (assuming 3/3 Feral Instinct) might look like this:

Damage+(2*Damage*.45) which can be simplified to:

Damage+(Damage*.9)

In the case of the assumed mangle crit of 1000, we’d be looking at this a little more accurately as:

1000+(1000*.9) = 1900

Neither of us is sure whether this is correct, but it makes a lot more sense. I’m going to attempt to test this out in game as soon as the regularly scheduled maintenance is over. If you have any questions, comments or corrections, please let me know.

EDIT:

Grundie has reminded me that Bear threat is not (as warrior threat is) calculated multiplicatively. He asserts that the value of 1.3 is the mangle mod regardless of the inherent threat (of 30%) that Dire Bear Form produces, and thus if you’re going to calculate it correctly, it should be:

Damage * ( 1.3[initial mangle mod] + 1.45[talented Dire Bear threat mod]) which can be simplified to:

Damage*1.75

1000*1.75 = 1750

Interestingly enough, all of the above end values are remarkably similar (between 1600-1900), which leads me to believe we’re definitely in the ballpark, here.